As Trump returns to the White House, the two countries' friendship is likely to shift, influenced by the presidents' agendas. Given the current positioning of India in the theatre as a strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific, the four focus areas most likely to engage Trump would be security, trade, joint strategic partnerships and alliances, and its armed forces. Here’s a look at the potential shifts:

Security and Defence Cooperation

Earlier as a president, Trump’s cooperation with the defence sector was impressive for India. This is expected to intensify further, especially because of the increasingly imposing China’s power. Criscross, Trump’s America may seek stronger security relations with more defence cooperation and information sharing. The other reason is the common threat of terrorism. Both leaders have demonstrated that they are not interested in upsetting the stability of South Asia.

Trade policies/relations and bilateral/multilateral agreements

Trade has been an issue of concern, and Donald Trump’s administration's policy on “America First” is likely to make policies on trade deficits tighter. Outsourcing and issues regarding property have been in his black book, so India could meet a few issues. But at the same time, this opens up a great chance for India for better bargaining terms for trade that can be positive in sectors like IT, pharmaceuticals, textiles, etc.

Strategic alliances as well as the Indo-Pacific region.

The Indo-Pacific alliance will most probably develop as both countries seek to balance China’s power in the region. Trump’s administration may be able to force India into a more proactive role in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which comprises the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India. Such a strategic partnership would centre on a vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific, which is under the Indian regional profile.

Immigrant Policies and Employment Patterns

The Trump presidency might lead to stronger measures on visas for Indian professionals in the US. The H-1B visa programme through which a large number of Indian IT professionals go to the US to work may become more rigid. As this may impact Indian IT employees, it can also force India to increase local R&D and employment generation to keep such talent.

Since then, Technology and Digital Cooperation has been published by various authors and organisations.

The current Indian technology industry coexists well with its American counterparts, and Trump's emphasis on technology may open partnership possibilities. India, as a country with a rapidly growing digital economy, could push itself into becoming a leading technology investor in the United States. There may be future collaborations on cybersecurity as well as on digital diplomacy that capitalise on India’s strong information technology industry.

The Climate Stance, Environmental, and Political Policymaking

Trump is doubtful of climate policies; this has potentially created a burden on the relationship between India and the United States towards green policies. But India may continue its climate progress regardless of the status of climate treaties as the U.S. withdraws from them. Joint investment in renewable energy may not be very active; however, India remains dedicated to a clean power source.

Conclusion

So, with Trump back in office, the India-US bilateral relations will be business-like, with both sides strictly focusing on their own interests. However, there are opportunities for closer cooperation in security and defence, as well as in the sphere of the Indo-Pacific partnership. As leaders from both sides develop potential barriers, this partnership will change in response to worldwide changes in power and dominance.
Overall, the future of India-US relations will likely be shaped by practical considerations and a focus on mutual benefits. It remains to be seen how the two countries will navigate potential challenges and opportunities in the evolving global landscape.