Will AI Replace More Jobs Than It Creates?

This is among the largest economic questions of our time. I think AI will eliminate more tasks than jobs in the short-term, but in the long-term, it will change the job market rather than eliminate it. The transition can be painful and uneven, though.

Here’s why.

AI Will Replace Many Existing Roles (Especially Routine Work)

AI systems such as the tools of OpenAI, robotics, automation systems offered by Microsoft, and robot management companies such as Boston Dynamics are already transforming industries.

Jobs most at risk:

• Data entry clerks
• Standard customer support staff.
• Transcriptionists
• Bookkeeping assistants
• Junior content writers
• Some factory and warehouse work.

AI is an expert at:

• Pattern recognition
• Repetitive cognitive tasks
• Large-scale data processing
• Around-the-clock and non-fatigability.

My Opinion: White-collar positions on the entry level are more vulnerable than most individuals had anticipated.

But AI Also Creates Entirely New Categories of Work

Technology changes in the past also provide employment that we could not have imagined in the first place. The internet did not simply lower the newspaper occupations, but it also produced:

• Social media managers
• App developers
• Cloud architects
• Digital marketers

On the same note, AI is already eliminating jobs such as:

• Prompt engineers
• AI ethics specialists
• AI auditors
• Automation consultants
• AI product managers

The companies such as NVIDIA and Google are also pouring into the AI infrastructure, which has created a demand for:

• Chip designers
• Data center engineers
• AI researchers
• MLOps specialists

My Opinion: The array of new forms of jobs will expand very much, however they might be more skilled-intensive.

The Real Issue: Skill Gap & Speed of Change

It is not that AI is going to steal all the jobs.

It’s this:

• The rate of AI evolution exceeds that of the education system.
• Middle-aged employees are likely to have problems re-skilling.
• Job polarization can become larger.

Routine jobs with low skill levels can be reduced.
Professional jobs with AI-enhancement can increase.
In the middle-skill jobs, there might be pressure.

This may increase the income inequality unless governments, and companies spend a lot of money on:

• Reskilling programs
• AI literacy education
• Transitional services offered to the workforce.

Automation Didn’t Destroy Work, It Changed It

The Industrial Revolution:

• Substituted manual textile labor.
• Developed production, design, and supply.

Computers:

• Eliminated typists
• Created software engineers

The internet:

• Disrupted retail
• Created e-commerce empires

AI seems to be of the same manner, only quicker and more brain-like.

My Overall Opinion

Short-term (next 5–10 years):

• Yes, AI is most likely to take over more jobs than it will bring about.
• The first positions to be affected by displacement will be administrative and routine cognitive ones.
• Friction between people will grow socially and economically.

Long-term (15–30 years):

• It is probable to generate more jobs than it will eliminate with AI.
• Human work will shift toward:
  • Creativity
  • Strategy
  • Human interaction
  • Complex judgment
  • AI oversight

The transition period will determine the prosperity or inequality brought about by AI.

AI won’t replace humans.

Humans who use AI will substitute for the non-users of AI.

It will not be that it is smarter than AI as the actual competitive advantage.
It will have been known how to deal with it.