The U.S. 2024 election season is heating up, and two prominent names are in the spotlight: California Vice President Kamala Harris and the centre of political power in the United States, ex-president Donald Trump. With the dynamics of this election playing out in unusual ways, the big question remains: what are the polls saying?

Harris and Trump in the Polls: Mixed Signals?

Surveys have been closely monitoring Harris's ratings, especially since critical issues such as the economy, immigration, and healthcare have impacted the Biden-Harris administration. On the other hand, Trump, despite all the controversies, has a fan base and a story that seems to continually find an echo among many Americans who want a straightforward and forceful leader.

Approval ratings regarding Kamala Harris have been changing at times and depend on the White House performance. Although Harris was able to push forward climate and healthcare policies, she still has some issues with policies such as immigration and inflation. Some surveys suggest that she is behind Trump by two or three points among independents—a group that is crucial to the vote. Trump, on the other hand, continues to enjoy dwarf support amongst Republicans; the polls have been steady regardless of the legal cases. These legal issues are both a problem and an asset, as some of his supporters view them as part of a greater “witch hunting.”.

Voter Concerns Driving Polls

Polling also suggests that the economic interest continues to dominate the interest of any voters despite the emergence of other concerns such as health. Every voter is concerned about how each candidate would respond to the issues of inflation, employment opportunities, and the economy. That is why Harris aligns with the Biden administration’s economic strategy and is associated with the current administration’s results. Trump, however, operates on the assumption of 'better days’, having campaigned on the key issues to do with taxes and a business-friendly environment.

The second important question is immigration. Most of Trump’s policies and tough words on immigrants strike a chord with the voters, especially with the voters that prefer a less open immigration system, while Harris's advocating for moderated immigration policies is praised as well as criticised for handling these controversial issues. The poll indicates that while Republican participants were in a large part inclined towards Trump’s position, Democratic participants supported Harris; the remaining participants were neutral.

Youth and minority votes

Especially the youth vote and minorities could be an important factor this year, but also the rural voters could help him. Harris has been actively seeking to garner the youth vote through climate change and affordable education policies, and through the diverse cultural values she holds, minorities find a political home in her.

Nonetheless, Trump uses a rather straightforward communication style, and his populist attitudes are attractive to a number of young people alienated from the political processes.

Surveys show that Harris enjoys preferred support from the minority population, especially Black and Hispanic, whereas Trump is favoured by the white working class. Yet, in case Harris provides a weak response to younger individuals, her advantage will shrink in the polls.

How to shift polling’s future?

These numbers are expected to change as campaigns progress and candidates focus on their strategies, which may take several more months. This advice will be significant for Harris because it is widely expected that more efforts will be made to mobilise swing voters, and her ratings will also need to rise among independent voters.

Consequently, Trump’s re-election would require the satisfaction of his supporters, mostly in retaining them and managing legal matters. As much as the fours both experience some difficulty, the race does not seem hard to come by.

The U.S. electorate, as we know, remains keenly interested in both candidates. Whereas Harris continues the policy of introducing a progressive administration, Trump focuses on his “America First” politics again. The current opinion polls are very close, and many factors are coming into play every day.

It’s an evenly matched fight and nothing but the outcome of this most unbelievable and closely watched political fight in the United States will tell who will have the upper hand come this November.